The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout
The first paper from the project, called "The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout," appeared in July 2001 in the American Journal of Political Science. The paper is based upon a data set measuring the exposure of citizens to initiatives across states and over time from the 1970s to the 1990s. The analysis finds that voter turnout increases when initiatives appear on the ballot, although the scope of the effect is less than advocates would have expected. It is only the most salient initiativesÑthose marked by a large volume of media coverage and intensive campaigns that attract additional voters to the polls. Moreover, the effects materialize during midterm elections but not presidential years, where the presidential race itself mobilizes those citizens who can be activated through campaign-related messages.
ther $25 to $30 billion a year in addition